Comparative analysis of migration intentions versus staying among medical students in the next six years: evidence from the university of abuja college of health sciences, nigeria

Abstract

Physician retention is a global workforce challenge, but the crisis is more severe in low- and middle-income countries, where medical migration begins as early as undergraduate training. In Nigeria, the anticipated loss of a large proportion of newly trained doctors threatens healthcare system sustainability. To compare the proportion of medical students at the University of Abuja intending to leave Nigeria with those planning to remain over the next six years, and to assess the relationship between migration intention and planned sector retention. A cross-sectional descriptive survey was administered to 236 medical students across all levels of study using stratified random sampling. Data collection utilized a structured interviewer-administered questionnaire, exploring migration intentions, timing, reasons, and sector retention plans. Analysis was performed using SPSS v26, with findings presented as frequencies and percentages. Overall, 73.7% of respondents planned to leave Nigeria after graduation, compared to 23.7% intending to stay. Migration intentions exceeded 60% at every study level, peaking at 81.5% among 300-level students. About 62.7% intended to leave Nigeria but remain in the health sector, while 8.0% planned to leave both the health sector and the country. The majority of medical students surveyed intend to migrate within six years, suggesting a severe future workforce deficit if these plans are actualized. Strategies to improve working conditions, offer career incentives, and strengthen early-career retention policies are urgently needed.